Expectations and Adaptation to Environmental Threats (forthcoming)
Abstract: Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult to form accurate expectations, limiting responses to uncertain environmental threats like air pollution. We study two cross-randomized interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: 1) general training in forecasting; 2) provision of air pollution forecasts. Both reduced subjects’ own air pollution forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast recipients were willing to pay 41 percent of their total mobile phone costs for continued access, consistent with welfare gains from adaptation.
Abstract: Can communication designed to increase support for government policy and shift perceptions of state capacity redress deep-rooted mistrust in state institutions? This paper finds providing information on past state effectiveness, highlighting citizens’ cooperation in enabling past effectiveness or appealing to religious authorities’ support for government policy have limited impact on support for policy, perceptions of state capacity and trust in the state in Pakistan. This holds true on average and across important dimensions of heterogeneity after comparing treatment effects to those induced by an experimenter demand treatment. This paper highlights the limits of using information to build trust in state institutions, and the importance of measuring experimenter demand.
Abstract: We develop a groundwater extraction model that considers the Marshallian inefficiency associated with sharecropping and use data from Pakistan to simulate the impact of an open access regime and of optimal management on groundwater extractions, the state of the aquifer, and annual net benefits through time. We also evaluate a price instrument as a mechanism of inducing optimal extractions. Under both open access and optimal management, we observe notable differences in groundwater extractions and the water table level between the tenure model (which considers the behavior of both owner cultivators and sharecroppers) and the baseline model (which includes the behavior of only owner cultivators). We also find a modest difference in the aggregate net benefits generated by the two models. The results offer new insights—vis-à-vis land tenure heterogeneity—into the evaluation of more effective policies for groundwater management and aquifer sustainability.
Abstract: In this paper, we compare two brick kiln technologies—the Bull’s Trench Kiln (BTK) and the Induced Draft Zigzag Kiln (ZZK)—through a transdisciplinary approach by focusing on two questions: do ZZKs tend to be cleaner than BTKs? Will operating ZZKs generate any reasonable economic and social benefits? To answer the first question, we collected and tested stack emission samples from two kilns: a newly constructed ZZK in Punjab, Pakistan and a conventional BTK located close to the ZZK. To address the second question, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the two types of kiln technologies using primary data on input and output quantities and prices from the sample kilns. The environmental results show that the ZZK emitted significantly less amount of harmful gases and particulate matter compared to the BTK. The economic analysis demonstrates that ZZKs improve both discounted private welfare and discounted social welfare compared to BTKs. For policymakers, we also outline recommendations to facilitate the technology transition to ZZKs. Our findings provide a case for the adoption of ZZKs in developing countries and for environmental policymakers to facilitate the technology transition.
Abstract: We study how the perceived source of environmental information—government or non-government affects consumers’ beliefs and demand for air quality forecasts in developing economies. In a randomized experiment in Lahore, Pakistan, we provide identical day-ahead SMS forecasts, varying only the attributed source. Subjects exhibit high willingness-to-pay regardless of source but perceive government forecasts as 12% less accurate. Nonetheless, they ultimately prefer the source assigned to them. Our findings suggest that source exposure—rather than content alone—shapes consumers’ beliefs and preferences, with implications for welfare-enhancing access to environmental information in low-capacity settings.
Abstract: We examine how political identity and self-image concerns shape local willingness to collaborate with NGOs administering development programs—a key factor for aid efficacy. On behalf of a NGO, we call school owners in Pakistan to elicit their interest in a collaboration. In the treatment group, we explicitly reveal the NGO’s liberal political motivation. The phone conversation is private and designed to minimize consequential considerations, allowing to isolate self-image concerns related to an anti-liberal political identity. While the treatment has a significant impact on beliefs about the NGO’s objectives, on average, we find no evidence that treated school owners are less interested in collaborating with the NGO. However, among the small minority of school owners expressing conservative beliefs in an additional obfuscated phone survey, we document large negative heterogenous treatment effects. Our findings contribute to our understanding of how donors’ political interests affect the efficacy of NGO-provided aid.
Abstract: Air quality in lower and lower-middle income countries has considerably deteriorated over the past many years, affecting human capital and welfare. Even though many developing countries have strong air pollution rules and regulations on paper—with a comprehensive set of ambient air quality and emission standards—their air quality outcomes continue to stagnate. Why? We deconstruct this problem using Pakistan—a developing country with a rich history of environmental regulation but acute air pollution—as a case study, demonstrating that regulatory deficiencies, resource and capacity constraints, and imperfect information prevent environmental institutions from achieving their objectives. Poorly designed standards—governed by a command-and-control approach—paltry budgets, and missing data on source emissions and ambient air quality inhibit environmental institutions’ ability to monitor and enforce air quality regulations. Understanding how much citizens value better air quality (willingness to pay), employing source apportionment studies, and harnessing the “informal regulator” (civil society) offer opportunities to fill policy gaps and improve compliance.
– IGC Research Project Report E-21019-PAK-1
– Coverage in Dawn
Abstract: To ensure water security and sustainability, Pakistan’s policymakers must keep groundwater extractions and stock at reasonable levels. How do policymakers currently manage groundwater? Why have they struggled so far? What are some of the tools that they can harness to improve groundwater allocation? By surveying existing data and literature on Pakistan’s groundwater, I address these questions, identifying the challenges that the country faces in managing groundwater and explaining policy instruments that could tackle these challenges. The chapter serves as a guide for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers interested in contextualizing Pakistan’s groundwater issues and understanding policy prescriptions that incentivize welfare-enhancing extractions.
Developing a Smog Alert System in Lahore to Enhance Public Response and Policy Decisions
with Shotaro Nakamura, Arman Rezaee, and Farah Said